The demand for platinum catalysts accounts for a large proportion, fluctuates greatly, and has growth
In the demand for platinum, automobile exhaust catalyst plays an important role: first, it accounts for a large proportion of the total platinum demand, more than 30%; second, compared with other industrial demand and jewelry, the demand for catalyst fluctuates greatly; third, from the past In 10 years, the compound growth of demand for catalysts is greater than that of other industries and jewelry. In short, the demand for catalysts can be summarized as a large proportion, large fluctuations, and growth.
The growth of automobile exhaust catalysts is closely related to the economic cycle, because the automobile industry on the downstream demand side is a highly cyclical industry. It has been the fifth year since the financial crisis in 2008, and the global economy has begun to show signs of weak recovery. Countries will gradually come out of the crisis and re-expand their economies. So platinum's catalyst demand will also grow in the context of economic recovery.
In the future, the demand for platinum catalysts in various countries will have the following characteristics: First, the demand in Europe will recover. In 2008, Europe raised the exhaust emission standards, but it coincided with the financial crisis, and the suppression of the economy also weakened the demand for catalysts. In the future, economic recovery will Against the background of the current situation, the demand for high tail gas emission standards will appear "compensatory growth", which will lead to the recovery of platinum demand; second, China will raise tail gas emission standards in 2013, so a substantial increase in platinum demand can be expected; third , the demand for platinum catalysts in the United States and Japan will grow moderately in the context of economic recovery.
Under the above background, it is assumed that the demand for platinum catalysts in developed countries can return to the level in 2007, and the demand in China and other countries will increase significantly. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of global platinum catalyst demand will be over 15% in the next two years.
Platinum catalyst demand European demand expected to recover
The demand for platinum catalysts in Europe accounts for more than 50% of the total demand for platinum catalysts. Since 1999, the demand for platinum catalysts in Europe has increased significantly. It is expected that the demand for platinum catalysts is expected to grow under the background of the bottoming out of the European economy in the future. The worst period of the European economy may have passed (it will be analyzed in the judgment of precious metal prices). In this context, the improvement of European exhaust emission standards and the increase in the market share of diesel vehicles will help Europe restore the demand for platinum catalysts.
Before the financial crisis in 2008, the increase or decrease in the demand for platinum catalysts in Europe was mainly determined by two aspects: the increase in exhaust emission standards and the increase or decrease in the market share of diesel vehicles. In the context of the improvement of exhaust gas catalyst standards and the increase in the market share of diesel vehicles, the demand for platinum catalysts in Europe can rise. This is mainly because: first, the amount of platinum per unit of diesel vehicles is greater than that of gasoline vehicles (generally 4-6 times), and the increase in the market share of diesel vehicles will increase the demand for platinum; second, the increase in exhaust emission standards will push The demand for catalysts of various types of automobiles will increase; combined with the first and second, under the double benefits of the improvement of exhaust emission standards and the increase in the market share of diesel vehicles, the demand for platinum catalysts in Europe will rise sharply. After 2008, although the exhaust emission standards were increased, the overall economic downturn led to a decrease in the absolute use of catalysts for diesel vehicles. In the future, under the background that the euro zone is gradually getting out of the debt crisis and striving to improve the economy, high emission standards and the increase in the proportion of diesel vehicles will push up the demand for catalyst platinum.
Platinum Catalyst Demand · Rising Demand in China
In the past ten years, the correlation between China's automobile production and platinum catalyst demand is relatively low, mainly because palladium is mainly used in China's exhaust catalysts instead of platinum, and the correlation between palladium catalyst demand and automobile production is as high as 0.989. In recent years, China's automobile sales have continued to rise, and the demand for platinum has also risen steadily. Although the correlation between China's platinum demand for catalysts and automobile production is low, under the background of rising automobile production, China's platinum demand in the future can be expected to increase. At the same time, because in 2013 and the following years, China will gradually increase the exhaust emission standards of various vehicles, which will greatly stimulate the demand for exhaust catalysts, thereby pushing up the demand for platinum.
The correlation between platinum demand for exhaust gas catalysts in Japan and automobile production is very high, and it can reach more than 0.9 before 1996. However, it is expected that Japan's automobile production will grow limited in the next 1 or 2 years. At the same time, due to Japan's commitment to the research and development of new energy vehicles, the demand for platinum catalysts will hardly increase significantly in the short term. However, as the global economy is expected to recover weakly, this will generally promote the growth of platinum catalysts in Japan, but this is only a follow-up.
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